Russell Clark of Horseman Capital just shared two Market Views papers. His bearish view is in part based on the significant capex spend.
The other longer-term problem with the semiconductor industry is the significant increase in capital expenditure by current players and the significant investment being made by China in the semiconductor industry. Much of the Chinese semiconductor sector is government controlled or unlisted, but we can see from the sales of major semiconductor equipment manufacturers that there has been an industry wide increase in capital expenditure.
China driving the supply of new capacity: