January Recap: Reading & Research

Some of my favorite reading of the past month:

Investor Letters

Artko Capital LP 4Q 2017 Partner Letter
(JYNT, VLGEA, PRXIQ, SKY, HTM)

Greenlight Capital 4Q 2017 Letter
(GM, BHF, CEIX/CNX, ESV, TWX, TWTR)

Horizon Kinetics 4Q 2017 Letter
Horizon Kinetics 4Q 2017 Portfolio Update Deck
(Inflation protection, marine drilling & shipping, precious metals royalties, and, of course, Bitcoin; also AC, CVEO, TPL, IEP)

Bill Miller’s 4Q 2017 Market Letter
I believe that if rates rise in 2018, taking the 10-year treasury above 3%, that will propel stocks significantly higher, as money exits bond funds for only the second year in the past 10, and moves into stock funds as happened in 2013. Stocks that year were up 30%, mostly as result of that shift in fund flows.

Miller Value Opportunity Equity 4Q 2017 Letter
(OMF, CTL, DISCK, SFIX)

Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund 4Q 2017 Letter
(AHL, CARE, FPH, TDW, MYRG)

Upslope Capital 4Q 2017 Update
(investors are "all-in", blockchain equities, CCK, BMS, SFER.IM, NXG.LN)

Wedgewood Q4 2017 - The Great Bull Market
(Market valuation and momentum charts, AAPL, CELG, KHC, PCLN, SLB/CLB, SCHW, V)

 

Learning from the best…

Michael Mauboussin: How Well Do You Compare?
Mauboussin on comparisons and analogies. Read the paragraphs on bias in comparable valuation analysis.

Russell Clark's Short Selling Strategy
Thoughts on short selling are rare, in this market especially. Enjoy.

Morgan Housel: The Thrill of Uncertainty
What keeps us glued to the money game?
“A high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability is markets’ price of admission, and it’s also the drug that keeps us hooked.”

AQR Interview with Ed Thorp
“I tell people that EMH is not true, but for you it probably is true. That is, most people don't have an edge. I think people should act as though it's true until they can demonstrate otherwise.”

Charlie Munger Conversation at University of Michigan
& Transcript of the Michigan Ross conversation

 

Research
Graham & Doddsville Winter 2018
Leon Cooperman (ADT), David Poppe and John Harris of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb (GOOG, CACC), C.T. Fitzpatrick of Vulcan Value (ORCL), and Seth Fischer of  Oasis Management (activism in Japan/China). Pitches: Staples 2025 bond, FLT, FDC

 

2018 outlook pieces:
Goldman Sachs Investment Management
KKR (I admit, I like their charts)
If you believe European rates are headed higher, take a look at ex. 107/p. 46.

Investment Outlook 2018 - The Best Papers (SavvyInvestor)

Jeremy Grantham on WealthTrack: Discussing the Melt-Up Possibility and Emerging Markets
Jeremy Grantham (GMO): Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up

 

Kyle Bass on 2017 Capital Link Invest in Greece Forum
At minutes 4, 8, 25, 35, and 45 Kyle outlines his bullish thesis on Greece.

The case for buying Greek bank equities and why Greece is turning the corner

Retail: IHL: Debunking the Retail Apocalypse

 

Turnarounds: BCG: Lessons from Successful Turnarounds

 

Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Not a recommendation or solicitation for any fund or partnership. Obviously.