Low Volatility and the Risks of Crowded Trades

Dean Curnutt writes at Bloomberg:

"Over the most recent six-month period, the realized volatility of the S&P 500 has been lower than at any time since before the financial crisis." (see chart)

Low Volatility and the Risks of Crowded Trades

He has an excellent quote by Victor Haghani of former hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management:

"The hurricane is not more or less likely to hit because more hurricane insurance has been written. In the financial markets this is not true. The more people write financial insurance, the more likely it is that a disaster will happen, because the people who know you have sold the insurance can make it happen. So you have to monitor what other people are doing."