Ray Dalio (of Bridgewater) shared his outlook on the markets and the economy on LinkedIn. The piece has some great long-term charts. He believes the short-term outlook is benign, while there there are significant risks lurking long-term.
His key points:
- The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
- There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,
- Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and
- Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.